Can Arsenal win the Premier League?

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I keep coming back to a simple question with a complicated answer. Do Arsenal have enough, right now, to finish ahead of Liverpool, City and everyone else over 38 games. The short answer is yes, if three things break their way. Finishing chances have to match chance creation more often. The summer signings have to raise the floor, not just the ceiling. And the early gauntlet of fixtures cannot put them in chase mode by October.

Where Arsenal are starting from

Last season ended with Arsenal in second on 74 points. Liverpool won the title on 84, which tells the story of a race that faded in April. The broader picture is useful. Arsenal allowed only 34 league goals, reached the Champions League semi-final, and finished with strong underlying numbers.

Two facts explain why the title slipped away. First, game-state control. Arsenal dropped 21 points from winning positions, their joint-most in a Premier League season. Second, set-piece output cooled after January compared to a year earlier, when dead balls were a weekly weapon.

Arsenal 2024–25 at a glance

What changed in the summer

Arsenal went after specific problems, not just names. The long-running striker gap was addressed with Viktor Gyökeres from Sporting. The club also added a press-resistant pivot in Martín Zubimendi, ball-winning depth with Christian Nørgaard, wide threat in Noni Madueke, a high-ceiling defender in Cristhian Mosquera, and veteran cover in Kepa Arrizabalaga. These are not hypothetical links. They are listed across official and league channels.

Key arrivals

Arsenal also tied their project to continuity. Mikel Arteta’s contract runs through 2027, which matters for day-to-day clarity and how players buy into the work.

How the new pieces solve old problems

1) Finishing and game-state control.
Arsenal created enough to win more often, then left doors open. Gyökeres changes how center backs defend Arsenal because he pins the line, attacks the six-yard box and turns hopeful crosses into shots from prime zones. His fee was substantial for a reason, and the scouting reads are consistent across reporting.

2) Breaking pressure without losing compactness.
When teams went man-for-man, Arsenal sometimes resorted to flat, safe passes. Zubimendi gives them clean first touches under pressure, which shortens the path to Saka and Martinelli. Nørgaard’s presence means they can rotate the midfield triangle without losing edge against counters. The direction of travel here is visible in the recruitment.

3) Keeping set-pieces sharp.
Arsenal were still elite in expected goals from set-plays, but the conversion rate cooled in the spring. With a bigger striker and one more aerial body, those marginal situations can swing back their way.

What the data and markets say

Neutral models and bookmakers both have Arsenal inside a four-team title conversation. Opta’s supercomputer lifted the Gunners’ pre-season title probability to roughly a quarter, up from the low teens last year, while still making a second-place finish the single most likely outcome. Odds markets show a tight pack with Liverpool a hair in front, then Arsenal and City. The signals are consistent. Contender, not favorite.

The rivals and the bar to clear

Liverpool are defending champions and signed aggressively, which raises the bar. Manchester City remain Manchester City, even with churn. Chelsea look deeper than they have in years. The point is not to talk Arsenal down. It is to be honest about the standard required to win 28 to 30 league matches. The title usually goes to the side that solves details quickly in August and September. Recent coverage reflects that pecking order.

The early test that will shape belief

Arsenal’s first six weeks are heavy. They visit Old Trafford, go to Anfield, and host City before the equinox. That run will not decide the title on its own, but it can create a cushion or a gap that lingers all winter. You can see the key fixtures on the slate above. The job in these opening games is simple. Avoid the kind of draws that became costly last spring.

August–September swing games to watch

What must go right

• Turn control into wins. Those 21 points lost from winning positions cannot repeat. A single extra win each month from August to April often separates champions from runners-up.
• Keep the defensive baseline. Conceding 34 across a season puts you in the title lane. Any drop there forces the attack to chase bigger numbers.
• Integrate the new core fast. If Zubimendi and Gyökeres settle quickly, the team’s patterns tighten. Slow adaptation pushes the heavy lifting back onto Saka and Ødegaard, which is where opponents want the game.

A quick pulse check on odds and projections

Title odds snapshot (pre-kickoff 2025–26)

My verdict

Can Arsenal win the Premier League. Yes. The path is narrow but clear. Keep the league-best defensive standard, turn a handful of stalemates into wins, and let a real number nine change the geometry inside the box. The squad is deeper. The manager is secure. The opening fixtures are tough enough to tell us a lot by late September.

If you want it in one line. Arsenal do not need perfection. They need to be slightly better in the moments that flipped against them last spring. The signings point in that direction. The numbers say they are in the fight. Now they have to prove it over 38 rounds.