Defeat to Belgium dents World Cup qualifying dream, but all is not lost

Cardiff felt loud, anxious, then stunned. Wales led early, rode the crowd, and still went home with a 4–2 defeat that leaves automatic qualification hanging by a thread. Belgium’s quality told in the key moments, and two handball penalties converted by Kevin De Bruyne proved decisive. Joe Rodon’s header gave Wales an eighth-minute lead, Thomas Meunier and Leandro Trossard scored either side of a late Nathan Broadhead reply, and the points went to the group favourites.

What happened and why it matters

• The turning points. VAR handball calls against Ethan Ampadu and Jordan James gifted Belgium two penalties, both put away by De Bruyne. Between them, Meunier turned the match before half-time. When Broadhead pulled it back to 3–2, Trossard answered within seconds to kill the momentum.
• Context. The result keeps Belgium on course to top Group J and qualify directly for the 2026 finals. Wales stay third, outside the automatic spot and chasing a play-off route. As of Monday night, Belgium sit on 14 points, North Macedonia on 13, and Wales on 10, with two matchdays left in November.
• Milestone and injury worry. Ben Davies collected his 100th cap before being forced off, a proud moment soured by the scoreboard.

What Wales need now

The arithmetic is awkward but not hopeless. The cleanest pathway is simple to describe and hard to execute. Win the last two games in November. Those fixtures are away to Liechtenstein and home to North Macedonia in Cardiff. Do that and a play-off place is within reach, regardless of Belgium’s run-in.

There is also a scenario where the door back to second opens further. North Macedonia dropped points at home to Kazakhstan on Monday. Any slip from them on the final window strengthens Wales’ grip on the play-offs, but that will only matter if Craig Bellamy’s side handle their own business first.

Group J snapshot after the Cardiff defeat

Belgium’s clinch scenario and points tallies are from match reports and live tables following Monday’s results.

Wales’ November to-do list

1. Be ruthless in Vaduz. Liechtenstein have yet to pick up a point. Three points there are non-negotiable if this campaign is going to March.
2. Turn Cardiff into a cup tie against North Macedonia. The head-to-head could decide second. North Macedonia’s draw with Kazakhstan shows pressure is biting across the group.
3. Cut the penalties and transitions. Both spot-kicks came from handballs in crowded penalty-area phases. Belgium also broke cleanly for the fourth. Managing the box and rest defence must be the coaching focus this week.
4. Keep the set-piece edge. Rodon’s opener reminded everyone that Wales remain dangerous from dead-balls. Against compact November opponents, that is often the first crack in the door.

The bigger picture

UEFA’s European qualifiers run March to November 2025, with play-offs in March 2026 for group runners-up and Nations League pathway teams. That calendar gives Wales two more shots to correct course before the lottery of March. The play-offs are not a consolation prize. They are exactly how this team reached Qatar.

What the match told us about Wales

• Intensity is there. The start, the volume in the stadium, and Broadhead’s late goal all showed belief has not drained away.
• Game management needs polish. Momentum swings punished Wales. Conceding immediately after scoring is the symptom of a team chasing too hard without structure.
• Personnel decisions loom. If Davies’ knock lingers, Bellamy will weigh Nathan Collins’ leadership at the back and whether to lean on Kieffer Moore’s presence up front in the November window.

Bottom line

Automatic qualification is no longer in Welsh hands after Belgium’s comeback in Cardiff. The route that remains is clear. Beat Liechtenstein away. Beat North Macedonia at home. If those six points arrive, March is alive and the World Cup dream survives the bruises from Monday night.