From Long Odds to Wembley Glory — How Crystal Palace shocked Liverpool in the match everyone thought they’d lose

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I walked into Wembley expecting a lesson in inevitability. Liverpool, fresh off a title, stuffed with expensive new talent, and managed by a coach who knows how to turn possession into pressure. Crystal Palace, proud FA Cup holders, sure, but still the team most people pencilled in as spirited underdogs. Ninety minutes later, and then a breathless shootout, the inevitability sat with the other side. Palace lifted their first Community Shield after a 2–2 draw and a 3–2 win on penalties, with Dean Henderson once again turning a final into his stage. The odds were supposed to be against them. That is the point. They won anyway.

I have watched enough football to know when a story hardens around a team. Palace is supposed to be plucky. They are supposed to be grateful guests. The thing I kept thinking as Marc Guehi hoisted that plate: this group does not care about the old story. They have written something else.

The mood before kickoff

The build-up set a clear frame. Liverpool were favourites with the bookmakers, widely tipped to take the curtain-raiser. Depending on where you looked, the pre-match lines gave Palace roughly a one-in-five shot. Odds compiled by betting analysts put Liverpool around 8/13 favourites, roughly 62 percent implied probability. Palace sat near 15/4, roughly 21 percent. Other trackers had similar splits and listed the Reds with close to a 59 percent edge. You get the picture. Palace was not expected to walk out with silver.

There was also the human weight of the day. Wembley observed tributes to Diogo Jota and his brother before kickoff, a moment that reminded me how thin the line is between normal life and the game so many of us use to escape it. Football kept moving, but the tone was not the usual froth of a preseason showpiece.

What actually happened

Liverpool struck first and fast. Hugo Ekitike finished coolly after four minutes. Jeremie Frimpong restored the lead on 21 minutes after Jean-Philippe Mateta had levelled from the spot in the 17th. Then the match settled into something odd. The favourites created, but the FA Cup winners would not go away. Ismaila Sarr equalised again on 77 minutes, a precise finish off the post that said everything about Palace’s composure. Ninety minutes ended level. The penalties delivered the upset. Henderson saved twice, Mohamed Salah missed the first, and 21-year-old Justin Devenny rolled in the winner with the kind of calm you normally only see in slowed-down TV replays.

Match timeline

Penalty shootout, kick by kick

Why this was a shock on paper, less so on grass

I keep coming back to two things: structure and nerve. Liverpool’s new-look left side flashed danger. Florian Wirtz combined smartly, Milos Kerkez flew forward, and Ekitike looked exactly like the kind of finisher who relishes service. The problem was balance. With both full-backs pushing on and the holding structure disrupted, Palace’s runners found seams. Arne Slot said as much afterwards. Create more, concede more. Not a crisis. A calibration problem.

Palace’s nerve did the rest. Under Oliver Glasner, they have grown a habit of staying in games long enough to change them. It is one thing to say Keep calm. It is another to play that way with 82,645 watching you. His post-match take felt like a window into their dressing room. They felt on the same level after 90 minutes. It was not bluster. They earned that belief.

By the numbers

Those numbers mirror what we saw. Liverpool had more of the ball. Palace had more of the moments that swing a final when the favourite leaves the door ajar. A soft penalty conceded, a central space left vacant at the wrong time, and then the game turned on belief and a goalkeeper who lives for penalty spots.

Henderson, again

Sometimes a player’s arc is obvious in real time. Henderson saved two in the shootout against Liverpool, just as he made the decisive stop in May when Palace won the FA Cup. He talked about loving big moments, and you believe him because he plays that way. The penalty homework. The way he turns, tosses the cap, and refuses to look nervous. There is a personality to this Palace team, and his is part of it.

Key performers snapshot

Palace’s new normal at Wembley

Three months ago, they won their first major trophy by beating Manchester City in the FA Cup final. Now they have added the Community Shield, again at Wembley, again against a superclub with a bigger budget and bigger expectations. Their semi-final here in April was a three-goal statement. The final in May was a one-goal act of control. This one required stubbornness and nerve. It is not a fluke when a team keeps finding different ways to win on the same stage.

There is still a cloud they cannot fully control. UEFA’s ruling that dropped them from the Europa League to the Conference League, due to multi-club ownership complications elsewhere, is the sort of bureaucratic snag that would crush the mood at many clubs. Palace have contested it, and the case has turned into a sub-plot around their celebrations. Henderson even said demoting the FA Cup winners would devalue the competition. Whether you agree or not, you can see how hard this group has worked to make good football the centre of their story.

What Liverpool learned

Arne Slot’s Liverpool will be fine if they sort the spacing. The good news for them is that the attack already shows signs of being quicker and more layered. The bad news is that transitions bite when your full-backs are aggressive and your rest defence is not yet connected. Slot acknowledged the balance issue afterwards. In August, honesty is worth more than spin. You fix what you are willing to name.

There is also the penalty piece. You cannot legislate for missed kicks from elite takers. You can only file it in the drawer marked early season variance and carry on. If anything, the bigger lesson sits earlier. When you have a rival wobbling, you finish the job in open play. Liverpool did not.

How the underdogs were priced — and why it mattered so little

Fans often roll their eyes at odds tables, but they serve a simple purpose. They aggregate expectations. To beat those expectations is, in part, what sport is for.

I include this not to rub salt into any open wounds, but to underline the size of the mental task Palace completed. Players read these things. They know the reputations on the other side. Then they play as if none of that matters.

The shape of the match in one screen-grab of my mind

If you break it down to phases, it reads like a classic favourite vs. outsider rhythm. Early punch from the favourite. Equaliser against flow. A second punch to restore order. The outsider refuses to chase recklessly, keeps their structure, rides their goalkeeper when needed, and waits for one more clean counter. The equaliser lands and now the anxiety flips shirts. In the shootout, the outsider feels freer. I have seen it in tournaments and league cups, across different countries and levels. The team with the lower pre-game number plays the penalties with less fear.

Oliver Glasner sounded like a coach who knows exactly what his team is. He spoke about staying calm, about seeing enough chances arrive if they stuck to their patterns, about matching Liverpool across 90 minutes. That self-definition matters, especially for a club building a new identity around competence rather than chaos.

Where this lands in Palace history

If May was a watershed, this felt like a confirmation. First FA Cup. First Community Shield. Two trophies in three months. The sceptic in me whispers about sample sizes. The watcher in me sees clarity. This is not a sugar high from a cup run. It looks like a team that understands how to live in tense spaces and trust its strengths when talent gaps get loud. And it keeps happening at Wembley, which has a way of becoming a mirror for a club’s self-image.

The small, telling details

I keep replaying Adam Wharton’s weight of pass into Sarr for the second equaliser. The first touch took the panic out of the moment. The finish was clinical, but the calm started earlier. I also think about Henderson’s routine between penalties. Heads up, a small breath, a readable mix of homework and instinct. And Devenny is asking to take the fifth. Twenty-one years old. Fifth taker. That is not macho theatre. That is the collective nerve crystallised in one choice.

Quick stat frame

What I think this means

I rarely use a season opener to declare anything, but I do use it to listen. Football tells you the truth in faint outlines at this time of year. Liverpool’s outline says excitement up front, and a structure that must settle before the league grind eats up points. Palace’s outline says something quieter. They are comfortable in big moments now. The badge carries different weight. People will still call them underdogs when the lights are bright. Fine. They seem to like that.

Palace were backed into long odds and then kept playing like the numbers were wrong. The celebration at the end looked less like a shock and more like a continuation. I can easily imagine them walking back down this tunnel again with stakes that feel heavier than a silver plate. For now, the truth is simple. They were braver when it mattered. Liverpool will process and adjust. Palace will enjoy another lap with their fans. Either way, the old story is gone.